Decision-Support Models & Analytical Frameworks

Each project here starts with a concrete business problem, a decision that needed structure, a question that standard reporting could not fully answer, or an analytical framework built to give leadership clearer choices. The library grows as new work is completed.

Completed Work

01
Available

FP&A Budget & Variance Model

The problem: Finance teams need a structured, integrated budgeting framework that connects assumptions to P&L, tracks actuals monthly, and automatically generates variance analysis, without rebuilding the model from scratch every planning cycle.

Approach
Annual budget model with central assumptions hub, monthly P&L, actuals input, and automatic budget-vs-actual variance reporting across all major line items.
Decision Value
Gives finance teams and leadership a reliable, maintainable planning structure that supports real budget conversations, not just a one-time exercise.
Output
Downloadable Excel template, free on the Resources page.
Industry
Adaptable to any business or industry.
Download free on Resources →
02
Available

Margin Bridge & Price/Volume/Mix Decomposition

The problem: Revenue grew but gross margin did not improve. Leadership needs to understand exactly where the margin went, and whether the issue is structural or controllable.

Approach
Standard PVMC decomposition methodology, separating price effect, volume effect, product mix effect, and cost effect with full reconciliation check at the portfolio level.
Decision Value
Pinpoints whether margin erosion is driven by pricing, mix shift, cost inflation, or volume change, and which levers are available to address it.
Output
5-sheet Excel model with example data, calculations, summary bridge, and waterfall-chart-ready output.
Industry
Cross-industry, applies wherever a business sells more than one product or service.
Download free on Resources →
03
Available

Forecast Scenario & Sensitivity Model

The problem: A business needs a forecast that reflects realistic uncertainty, and leadership needs to know which assumptions actually move the outcome, rather than treating every input as equally important.

Approach
5-year driver-based forecast with three scenarios (Base / Upside / Downside) and a built-in sensitivity analysis ranking each driver by its impact on Year 5 net income.
Decision Value
Turns forecasting from a single point estimate into a structured strategic conversation, what could happen, why, and where the real risk lies.
Output
6-sheet Excel model: drivers, full forecast, scenario comparison, sensitivity analysis, and executive summary.
Industry
Adaptable to any business or industry.
Download free on Resources →

Models & Frameworks Being Built

04
In Development

Pricing & Segment Profitability Model

The problem: Margin pressure is spreading across product lines. Leadership needs to understand where true pricing power exists, which segments are structurally profitable, and how different pricing and mix strategies affect overall results.

Approach
Integrated pricing and segment profitability model incorporating price sensitivity, contribution margin by segment, and scenario modeling for pricing and resource allocation decisions.
Decision Value
Identifies where the business should invest, where pricing can be improved, and what the integrated financial impact of a changed strategy looks like.
05
In Development

Cash Flow Sensitivity Tool

The problem: A business's P&L looks acceptable, but cash flow is unpredictable. Leadership needs to understand how changes in revenue timing, collection patterns, payment cycles, and margin affect liquidity, before they happen.

Approach
Cash flow model connecting P&L to operating cash, working capital movements, and liquidity, with scenario toggles for key operational variables.
Decision Value
Gives leadership early visibility into liquidity pressure under different business conditions, turning cash flow management from reactive to proactive.

Optimization & Applied Economic Models

These projects demonstrate the advanced quantitative modeling background that informs my business work, applying mathematical programming and optimization to complex, real-world decision problems.

06
In Development

Mathematical Programming for Business Decisions

The problem: Every business faces decisions involving many variables and constraints simultaneously, pricing across product lines, resource allocation across departments, capacity planning across time periods. These are typically made with data and intuition. But in complex environments, a systematic optimization framework can find solutions that intuition alone would not identify.

Approach
Mathematical programming models that search the full decision space, subject to real-world constraints, to identify the best available allocation, pricing, or mix decision.
Decision Value
Moves resource allocation and pricing decisions from intuition-guided to model-supported, while keeping the output practical enough for real business use.
07
Active Research

Agricultural Sector Optimization Model

A large-scale nonlinear optimization model of an agricultural sector, covering crop production decisions, water allocation across regions and water types, market prices, and trade. Built using Positive Mathematical Programming in GAMS. Used for policy scenario analysis including yield shocks, water restrictions, and import policy effects.

Approach
Calibrated nonlinear programming with CONOPT4 solver. Multi-region, multi-commodity, multi-water-type structure with welfare decomposition and scenario comparison.
Relevance
Demonstrates the same optimization and scenario modeling thinking applied in business decision frameworks, at research scale.

Have a Financial or Business Problem That Needs Real Analysis?

I am available for consulting projects, fractional FP&A engagements, financial modeling work, and strategic analysis. The more complex the question, the more structured analysis tends to help.

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Research

How Good Is Claude at FP&A Work?

I ran a structured benchmark — Opus 4.8 vs Sonnet 4.6, tested across effort levels on a CFO monthly close task. The findings have direct implications for how FP&A professionals should use these tools in practice.

Read the Benchmark →